New England Market Watch 10-16-26
Issue 5 · Week of Oct 12, 2026 · compiled Fri Oct 16
New England Economic Watch
Inflation is running hotter here than in the rest of the country. Northeast consumer prices rose 4.2% in the year to September, up from 3.9% in August, against 3.7% nationally. Energy is the main reason: it was up 23.1% in the region and gasoline up 35.8%. The Boston Fed's October Beige Book said the regional outlook "dimmed somewhat." Banks reported "decreased optimism," and commercial construction slowed. Mortgage rates held at 7.40%, so a $400,000 loan still costs about $301 a month more than a year ago. Massachusetts heating oil rose another 8¢ to $6.19. Jobless claims rose 2.4% across the six states, all of it in southern New England; Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine fell. Closer to home, work started Oct 15 on 31 affordable apartments at the former Chalet property in West Brattleboro. State jobs data for September and national housing starts both arrive Tuesday, Oct 20.
Compiled from public sources (government agencies, the Federal Reserve, industry groups and news outlets), listed under Sources at the bottom of this page. This report is for general information only. It is not financial, investment, legal or real estate advice.
Good
- Affordable housing breaks ground in Windham County. Windham & Windsor Housing Trust and Evernorth started Phase One of the former Dalem's Chalet property in West Brattleboro on Oct 15: 31 new apartments, about half of them permanent supportive housing, at about $16.7 million. HP Cummings is the builder. Later phases add eight shared-equity homes (Vermont Business Magazine).
- Northern New England claims fell. Advance initial claims for the week ending Oct 10 fell in Vermont (−58, to 270), New Hampshire (−123, to 232) and Maine (−33, to 458) (U.S. DOL). By Vermont's own count, initial claims were 285, below the 300 of a year ago.
- Pump prices eased for a second week. New England diesel fell 3.5¢ to $6.44 a gallon on Oct 12, and regular gasoline fell 5.2¢ to $4.29 (EIA). Massachusetts propane slipped 4¢ to $3.86 (MA DOER, Oct 13).
- Hiring picked up a little. The Beige Book (Oct 14) said regional employment edged up and hiring picked up somewhat. Manufacturing output and profits rose, helped by data-center, energy and defense demand. Vermont pre-season ski pass sales and bookings were running ahead of last year.
Bad
- Northeast inflation reached 4.2%. That's the September year-over-year rate, up from 3.9% in August. Core prices were up 3.1%, energy 23.1%, gasoline 35.8%, natural gas service 9.6% and electricity 7.1% (BLS, Oct 14). Nationally, CPI was 3.7% and core 2.6%. After inflation, average hourly earnings were 0.7% lower than a year ago.
- The Fed's business contacts are gloomier. The Boston Fed's October Beige Book said the outlook "dimmed somewhat," with "mounting financial strain" among small businesses and nonprofits. Commercial construction slowed, with overbuilding cited in Boston and high costs in Providence. Financing costs rose and loan terms tightened. Contacts said households face "considerably higher" utility bills this winter.
- Heating oil is up 74% from last year. Massachusetts heating oil rose 8¢ to $6.19 a gallon on Oct 13, against $3.56 a year ago. The 90th-percentile price is now $6.71.
- Southern New England claims rose. Connecticut (+178, to 2,239), Rhode Island (+149, to 747) and Massachusetts (+89, to 4,530) all rose in the week ending Oct 10. That lifted the six-state total 2.4%, to 8,476.
- Hasbro is moving 587 jobs out of Rhode Island. On Oct 8, Hasbro filed a WARN notice for 587 Pawtucket positions, effective Dec 24, as part of its move to Boston's Seaport. Every affected worker was offered a Boston role, but it isn't known how many will accept (Boston.com, Oct 14).
Flat
- Mortgage rates held at a near three-year high. The 30-year averaged 7.40% on Oct 15, unchanged from last week and up from 6.27% a year ago. The 15-year slipped to 6.71% (5.52% a year ago). Principal and interest on a $400,000 30-year loan run about $2,770 a month, $301 more than at last year's rate (our calculation).
- No new state jobs or housing data this week. The August labor table stands until Oct 20. Redfin's state pages were re-checked Oct 16 and still show August (VT, MA, CT, RI) and July (NH, ME).
- Crude is still drifting up. Brent was about $106 on Oct 16, against about $103 a week earlier, after a container ship was sunk in the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA is going ahead with releasing the last 100 million barrels of its emergency stocks (Trading Economics).
- The Fed is on hold until Oct 28. The target range is still 3.75–4.00% after September's hike, and the hotter September CPI comes ahead of that meeting.
- Construction's share of Vermont claims rose. Construction made up 13% of Vermont's initial claims in the week of Oct 10, up from 7% the week before. The Brattleboro service area had 99 continued claims, against 90 a year ago (Vermont DOL).
Where each metric stands
Labor market by state
| State | Unemp. rate | vs Aug '25 | Labor force YoY | Payroll jobs | Jobs YoY | Jobs MoM | Construction YoY | Manufacturing YoY | New claims, wk of Oct 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermont | 2.6% | 0.0 | −10,138 (−2.9%) | n/a | −500* | −400 | — | — | 270 (−58) |
| New Hampshire | 2.8% | −0.3 | −1,107 (−0.1%) | 703,300 | +1,300 (+0.2%) | −1,500 | −1,200 (−3.7%) | +200 | 232 (−123) |
| Maine | 3.2% | −0.1 | −11,087 (−1.6%) | 660,200 | −600 (−0.1%) | +200 | −400 (−1.1%) | 0 | 458 (−33) |
| Massachusetts | 4.3% | −0.2 | −71,140 (−1.8%) | 3,706,000 | +8,300 (+0.2%) | −7,100 | +2,300 (+1.4%) | +4,100 (+1.8%) | 4,530 (+89) |
| Connecticut | 5.1% | +1.0 | −54,414 (−2.8%) | 1,730,500 | +15,700 (+0.9%) | −300 | +2,400 (+3.7%) | +4,500 (+3.0%) | 2,239 (+178) |
| Rhode Island | 3.7% | −0.6 | −16,436 (−2.8%) | 515,100 | +300 (+0.1%) | +500 | −700 (−3.1%) | +1,300 (+3.3%) | 747 (+149) |
| United States | 4.1% | ≈0 | +0.4% | +133,000‡ | 199,000 SA† | ||||
*Vermont over-the-year jobs are the Vermont Dept. of Labor's not-seasonally-adjusted count (private −300, government −200). The August change was −400, led by state government (−600) and local government (−400), partly offset by accommodation and food services (+300). Vermont county unemployment ran from 2.3% (Addison, Chittenden) to 3.3% (Bennington). Construction and manufacturing detail for Vermont was not in this release. The claims column shows advance state initial claims (not seasonally adjusted) for the week ending Oct 10, from the U.S. Labor Department's Oct 15 report, with the change from the revised week ending Oct 3 in parentheses. Last issue's advance six-state total of 8,134 was revised to 8,274, mostly because New Hampshire's count was revised from 253 to 355. Vermont's own weekly summary for the week of Oct 10 counts 285 initial claims (300 a year ago) and 1,874 continued claims (1,845); construction made up 13% of initial claims. †U.S. figure is seasonally adjusted, week ending Oct 10 (198,000 the week before, revised). ‡U.S. August payroll change as revised Oct 2 (first reported +162,000). U.S. September: +29,000 jobs, unemployment 4.2%.
Metro areas, August 2026 (BLS, Sept 30; not seasonally adjusted, with August 2025 in parentheses): Hartford 4.8% (4.1%), New Haven 4.9% (4.3%), Bridgeport–Stamford 4.5% (3.9%), Portland ME 2.7% (2.6%), Bangor 3.4% (3.2%), Lewiston–Auburn 3.2% (3.2%). Boston was 4.1% and Providence 4.2%. The Rockingham–Strafford, NH, division was 2.8%, the second-lowest of any metro division in the country. September metro data are due in early November.
Housing
Rates didn't move this week. The 30-year held at 7.40%, so a $400,000 loan still costs about $301 a month more than at last year's 6.27%. Builders were already discouraged before rates peaked: NAHB's builder confidence index fell to 32 in September, tied for its lowest in more than three years. The Northeast reading fell 5 points to 39, and 38% of builders nationally were cutting prices. The Beige Book (Oct 14) said closed home sales in the region fell moderately in August, with a sharp drop in Maine. Prices still rose modestly, inventory grew, and Vermont condo sales improved. Vermont is still the slowest market in the region on Redfin's measure: as of August, the median home sat 69 days, 11 days longer than a year ago, and listings were up 14%. In Windham County, work began Oct 15 on 31 affordable apartments in West Brattleboro, the region's newest addition to a rental market last reported at 2.1% vacancy (July, per the Brattleboro Reformer). Vermont's winter stormwater rules have applied to covered construction sites since Oct 15.
| State | Month | Median sale price | Price YoY | Homes sold YoY | Listings YoY | Median days on market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermont | Aug | $438,280 | +0.8% | +6.2% | +14.2% | 69 (+11) |
| New Hampshire | Jul | $548,028 | +6.4% | +6.0% | +9.3% | 44 (+5) |
| Maine | Jul | $423,476 | +0.7% | −1.3% | +4.3% | 50 (−9) |
| Massachusetts | Aug | $657,263 | +1.1% | −1.3% | +17.4% | 27 (+2) |
| Connecticut | Aug | $474,026 | +7.7% | −1.7% | −1.0% | 40 (+2) |
| Rhode Island | Aug | $532,781 | +6.6% | −2.7% | +7.1% | 31 (+1) |
Vermont and New Hampshire were re-checked on Redfin Oct 16 and match the figures above; Redfin has not yet posted a newer month. September data should appear in late October. "Listings YoY" is the count of homes for sale. More listings means more choice for buyers, so it is marked green here. Seven Days' statewide Vermont median ($450,000, August) comes from a different source than Redfin's ($438,280), so the two don't match exactly. Northeast existing-home sales (NAR, August) ran at a 480,000 annual rate, down 2.0% from a year earlier, with a median price of $556,900 (+4.3%). Census Northeast housing starts for August ran at a 96,000 annual rate, unchanged from a year earlier, and permits at 128,000 (+5.8%). September figures for both come out later in October.
Prices, rates and energy
Unchanged from the week before and up from 6.27% a year ago. The 15-year is 6.71%, down from 6.73% (5.52% a year ago).
Up from 3.9% in August. Core 3.1%, energy +23.1%, gasoline +35.8%. The U.S. headline is 3.7% and core 2.6%. October CPI is due in mid-November.
Up 8¢ in a week and 73.9% from a year ago ($3.56). Propane is $3.86, down 4¢ in a week and up 5.5% from a year ago. The 10th–90th percentile range for heating oil is $5.70–$6.71.
Down 3.5¢ in a week, up $2.49 (63%) from a year ago. Regular gasoline is $4.29, down 5.2¢ (up 44% from a year ago). Brent was about $106 on Oct 16.
Up 202 (+2.4%) from the revised week before. CT, RI and MA rose; VT, NH and ME fell. National claims were 199,000 (seasonally adjusted).
Down 3 points, tied for the lowest in more than three years. The Northeast reading is 39, down from 44. The October reading is due shortly.
Unemployment 4.2%, up from 4.1%. July and August revised down a combined 60,000. Construction +11,000. The October report is due in early November.
Expected rise in spending for oil-heated U.S. homes this winter. Northeast propane −15%, natural gas −14%, electricity −3% (Oct 6).
Annual rate, versus +2.2% for the U.S. Connecticut grew +3.0%. Next state GDP release: Dec 23.
Raised ¼ pt on Sept 16 (12–0), the first hike since 2023. The next decision is Oct 28.
What businesses are telling the Fed
New this week. Activity in New England "expanded slightly, with mixed results across sectors." Consumer spending was roughly flat, and the outlook "dimmed somewhat" as cost pressures mounted on lower-income families, small businesses and nonprofits. Contacts still hoped for more hiring and more growth in manufacturing and nonfinancial services. Staffing firms said wage increases "often fell short of inflation," which was prompting some workers to look for new jobs. The Boston Fed's September New England Economic Conditions report (data through July) found regional payrolls up 0.3% from a year earlier, against 0.2% for the U.S., with labor force participation down 1.4 points to 63.5%.
Manufacturing: output up slightly and profits up modestly, with data-center, energy and defense demand helping. One energy-intensive firm delayed expansion and hiring because of energy costs.
Tourism: spending edged up but was uneven. Some high-end Maine hotels set revenue records, while fewer Canadian visitors weighed on other areas. Vermont pre-season ski sales ran ahead of last year.
Retail: spending slipped slightly. Margins were squeezed by rising costs and price-sensitive shoppers.
Residential: closed sales fell moderately in August (sharply in Maine). NH single-family and VT condo sales improved. Prices up modestly, inventory up. Multifamily construction dipped slightly.
Commercial RE: roughly stable, and office vacancy edged lower. Construction slowed, financing costs rose and loan terms tightened.
Labor: employment edged up and hiring picked up somewhat. Shortages persist in health care, childcare and human services. Medical-benefit costs are discouraging some hiring.
Banking: loan volume up slightly, but higher rates damped demand. Banks reported "decreased optimism and greater uncertainty."
Prices: output prices rose modestly. Heating oil was up sharply from a year ago, and households face considerably higher utility bills this winter.
Release calendar
Reporting rhythm
Every week
- 30-yr and 15-yr mortgage rates
- Heating oil and propane prices (Oct–Mar)
- Crude, plus New England diesel and gasoline (EIA, Mondays)
- State initial jobless claims
- Vermont DOL weekly claims summary (initial and continued claims, Brattleboro service area, claims by industry)
- Layoffs, openings and major deals
- Boston Fed Weekly State-level Economic Conditions index
Monthly, when released
- State unemployment and payrolls
- U.S. jobs report (payrolls, construction, revisions)
- Metro-area jobs and unemployment
- Northeast and Boston CPI
- Home prices, sales and listings (Redfin)
- State JOLTS openings, plus national JOLTS
- NAR Northeast existing-home sales and median price
- Census Northeast housing starts and state building permits
- S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Boston home price index
- EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (crude, diesel and heating fuel forecasts)
- Cotality state home price index (via Providence Business News and others)
- New: NAHB/Wells Fargo builder confidence index (national and Northeast, plus share of builders cutting prices)
Every 6–8 weeks
- Boston Fed Beige Book
- FOMC decisions
- Boston Fed New England Economic Conditions
Quarterly and annual
- GDP and personal income by state (BEA)
- County wages and employment (QCEW)
- FHFA house price index
- EIA Winter Fuels Outlook (each October), regional heating cost projections
Sources
All figures come from the public sources below and are labeled with the date or data month they cover. Some are preliminary and may be revised. New England Economic Watch is provided for general information only and is not financial, investment, legal or real estate advice. Please verify figures with the original source, and consult a qualified professional, before making decisions based on them.
- Freddie Mac PMMS, "Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 7.40%," Oct 15, 2026
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, Oct 15, 2026
- Vermont Dept. of Labor, weekly UI claims summary, week of Oct 10, 2026
- MA DOER, home heating fuel prices, Oct 13, 2026
- EIA, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, Oct 12, 2026
- Trading Economics, Brent crude, Oct 16, 2026
- BLS, CPI Northeast Region, September 2026 (Oct 14)
- First Trust, U.S. CPI for September 2026, Oct 14
- Boston Fed, Beige Book First District, Oct 14, 2026
- Vermont Business Magazine, WWHT and Evernorth begin Chalet redevelopment, Oct 15
- Boston.com, Hasbro tells Rhode Island workers to move to Boston, Oct 14
- Boston Globe, Hasbro WARN notice for nearly 600 R.I. jobs, Oct 13
- Mortgage News Daily, NAHB builder confidence, September 2026
- Census Bureau, New Residential Construction, August 2026 (Sept 17)
- EIA, October Short-Term Energy Outlook press release, Oct 6, 2026
- EIA, Winter Fuels Outlook 2026–27, Oct 6, 2026
- BLS, Employment Situation, September 2026 (Oct 2)
- Providence Business News, Cotality R.I. home price index, Oct 7
- Boston Globe, Schneider Electric to acquire PTC, Oct 5
- Vermont Business Magazine, winter construction stormwater rules, Oct 8
- BEA, GDP by State, Q2 2026 (released Sept 30)
- CBIA, Connecticut Q2 GDP growth
- BLS, Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment, August 2026 (Sept 30)
- BLS, unemployment rates for large metro areas, August 2026
- Seven Days, Vermont housing market tilts toward buyers, Sept 29
- Boston Fed, New England Economic Conditions, September 2026
- NAR, Existing-Home Sales, August 2026
- Brattleboro Reformer, Windham County real estate, July 17
- NHPR, Dartmouth Health cuts, Sept 16
- Boston Fed, Weekly State-level Economic Conditions index (launch notice)
- BLS, State Employment and Unemployment, August 2026
- Vermont Dept. of Labor, August 2026 release
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, Sept 16, 2026
- Redfin state housing pages (checked Oct 16): VT, NH, ME, MA, CT, RI
- NAHB Eye on Housing, state employment, August 2026